The political landscape is now dominated by two camps. But the delay prompted some of them to reconsider.
The parties had agreed on holding presidential and parliamentary elections simultaneously on the basis of existing electoral laws and without an approved constitution. Before the 24 December balloting was delayed, there was broad consensus on the way forward. That government brought together Libya’s rival power centres, one based in Tripoli and the other in Tobruk, which formed after contested parliamentary elections cleaved the country in two in 2014. Libya’s new political fracture risks breaking apart the unified interim government that formed in the months after a ceasefire declared in October 2020. With support from outside powers, the rivals should either come to a consensual deal on a cabinet that both support, or negotiate a new electoral roadmap. The other rejects the Bashagha government and wants current interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba to remain in place while parliamentary elections proceed – all before turning to constitutional reform and presidential selection. One wants to instal a new government led by former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, who won a controversial parliamentary confidence vote on 1 March, and then to turn to constitution drafting while putting off elections.
Libya’s main political camps have put in motion conflicting strategies for getting out of the impasse. But the national elections commission, citing political and legal obstacles, delayed the votes indefinitely.
On 24 December 2021, the country was to hold milestone presidential and parliamentary elections – a key step on the way to a more stable democracy. More than a decade after Muammar al-Qadhafi fell, Libya has entered yet another uncertain phase with political factions at odds on the way forward. With encouragement from outside powers, they should return to the negotiating table and either agree on a new cabinet or, with the UN’s assistance, chart a new electoral roadmap. What should be done? Libyan politicians should pause one camp’s initiative to instal a new government and seek a consensual way forward. While a return to conflict does not seem imminent, renewed violence is possible if the rift between political camps keeps growing. Why does it matter? Without consensus on a way forward, Libya’s long-awaited transition could come to a premature halt, with the country once again divided between two rival governments. Now a new feud between rival governments, each claiming to be legitimate, is escalating. But authorities postponed the polls indefinitely amid unremitting disputes. What’s new? Elections – a critical step in Libya’s transition away from years of autocratic rule under Muammar al-Qadhafi and subsequent political division – were scheduled for December 2021.
The Covid-19 Pandemic and Deadly Conflict.